By the  University of New South Wales news service

Capriles campaign photo

Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Monday vowed to end his nation's shipments of subsidized oil to Communist-run Cuba, slamming acting President Nicolas Maduro as a puppet of Havana.

Capriles has berated Maduro as a weak imitation of the late Hugo Chávez, whose death two weeks ago convulsed the country and triggered an April 14 vote. The opposition also accuses the government of failing to fight crime and control inflation.

"The giveaways to other countries are going to end. Not another drop of oil will go toward financing the government of the Castros," Capriles said, referring to Cuba's present and past leaders, Raúl and Fidel Castro.

"Nicolas is the candidate of Raúl Castro; I'm the candidate of the Venezuelan people," Capriles said during a speech to university students in the oil-rich state of Zulia.

The election marks the first test of the Chavismo movement's ability to maintain the late leader's radical socialism after his death, and it will be crucial for regional allies that depend on Caracas for financing and cheap fuel.

A victory for Capriles, 40, would likely give global oil companies greater access to the world's largest crude reserves and offer investors more market-friendly policies after years of state-centered economics.

​​Maduro, a 50-year-old former bus driver, is seen as having the advantage in the vote. He has vowed to continue Chavez's economic model that included frequent nationalizations and heavy regulation of private enterprise alongside generous social welfare programs that underpinned his popularity.

The youthful Capriles, who lost to Chavez by 11 percentage points in 2012, faces a delicate balancing act to highlight the flaws of Chavez's governance without appearing to be attacking the former president or seeking to tarnish his legacy.

​​He has exchanged furious barbs with Maduro since launching his candidacy and renewed his criticisms from last year's campaign over day-to-day problems such as unchecked crime, product shortages and high cost of living.

"Every day it's harder to find food, and every day food is more expensive," Capriles said. "This model is not viable."

He said halting cheap oil sales to Cuba would free up resources to boost public employee salaries by 40 percent to make up for inflation that is one of the region's highest.

Ties to Cuba are likely to remain a central part of the campaign. Capriles for months accused authorities of compromising the country's sovereignty by letting Chávez govern for two months from a Havana hospital.

Venezuela provides close to 100,000 barrels per day of oil to Cuba in exchange for a host of services including doctors that staff free health clinics in slums and rural areas.

Supporters say it has helped expand access to health care, while critics call it a mere subsidy to the Castro government.

Maduro's frequent visits to the island during Chavez's two-month convalescence there led opposition leaders to joke that he had picked up a Cuban accent.

​​The emotional outpouring of affection for Chávez following his March 5 death, along with ample use of government television broadcasts, has helped give Maduro a leg up in the race.

Millions of bereaved supporters have lined up before Chavez's remains to pay respects to a leader who was loved by many of the country's poor but reviled by adversaries who called him a fledgling dictator.

Two recent opinion polls showed Capriles trailing Maduro.

​​Respected local pollster Datanalisis gave Maduro 46.4 percent versus 34.3 percent for Capriles in a survey carried out before Chavez's death.

Capriles enraged Maduro by accusing him of repeatedly lying about the late president's two-year battle with cancer, and of then cynically using his death as a campaign tool. He later apologized to Chavez's family if his words had offended them.

Maduro last week described a plot by far right U.S. elements linked to two senior former members of the George W. Bush administration to kill Capriles.

Both officials denied the charges.


Climate scientist says surges
from storms to increase tenfold


By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future?

How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute shows that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celsius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.

Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. They typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. To calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.

"Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model," explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted of the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
               
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.

The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many Katrinas will there be per decade?

Since 1923, there has been a 'Katrina' magnitude storm surge every 20 years.

"We find that 0.4 degrees Celsius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all Katrinas are due to global warming," said Grinsted.

"If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by three to four times, and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a Katrina magnitude storm surge every other year," said Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.


Leaders gather in Rome
for installation of Francis


The Vatican is prepared for a huge crowd today as Pope Francis hosts political leaders from 130 nations and representatives from a variety of religions for his installation Mass. Among those visiting Rome is Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla.

Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to pack St. Peter's Square for the celebration, which formally installs Francis as the new leader of the world's 1.2 billion Roman Catholics.

Among the high-level guests, the spiritual leader of the world's Orthodox Christians, Bartholomew, is expected to attend.  He would be the first patriarch from the Istanbul-based church to witness a papal inauguration since the two branches of Christianity split nearly1,000 years ago.

More than 30 delegations of other Christian churches, as well as representatives from the Jewish, Muslim and various other faiths, also will attend.

​​Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner arrived prior to Tuesday, in order to meet with the new pope, who hails from her country.  U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, a Catholic, also is one of the political leaders in attendance.

The Vatican released Pope Francis' new coat of arms, which is similar to the one he used as Archbishop of Buenos Aires.  It features symbols of Jesus, his mother, Mary, and her husband, Joseph, as well as the new papal trappings of a bishop miter and the crossed keys of the Holy See.

Vatican officials also released details of Francis' official ring, which once was offered to Pope Paul VI, who presided over the second half of the Second Vatican Council, which is credited with modernizing the Roman Catholic Church.

Francis will receive the ring during Tuesday's installation Mass.


Drug-resistant TB on rise,
and campaigns seek funds


Strains of tuberculosis that are resistant to multiple drugs present a major threat and could spread widely, the World Health Organization and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria said Monday. The organizations are campaigning for funds to tackle the world's second deadliest infectious disease.

Tackling the TB epidemic is one of the eight Millennium Development Goals that U.N. member states agreed to achieve by 2015.

Annually, the number of new TB cases has declined since 2006 and the number of TB-related deaths is on track to reach a 50 percent reduction by 2015.

But in 2011, according to the World Health Organization, there were still 8.7 million new cases and 1.4 million people died from TB.

Additionally, multidrug-resistant TB is posing an increasing threat.

Mario Raviglione, director of the World Health Organization's Stop TB Department, said there has been a 2 percent yearly decline in people falling ill from TB. It's good that the numbers are going down, he said, but the progress is too slow.

"We are not seeing a dent in making the numbers of cases of TB reduced year by year in an accelerated way," said Raviglione.

Two regions, Europe and Africa, are not on track to halve the TB death rate by 2015, which is the goal laid out by the U.N.

Raviglione said that in Western Europe and North America there are, on average, about five or six TB cases per 100,000 people. The numbers in Africa, which has the greatest per capita TB death rate, are much higher.

"In Africa you find peaks, especially in southern Africa, like South Africa, Swaziland, Lesotho, etcetera, of 1,000 cases per 100,000, so, many times higher than what you find in rich countries," he said.

The two Geneva-based organizations held a press conference Monday highlighting the urgent need for funds to combat the TB crisis.

They say an extra $1.6 billion in international funding is needed annually for the treatment and prevention of the disease. By filling the gap, it says treatment could be provided to 17 million TB and multidrug-resistant TB patients, and save 6 million lives between 2014-2016.

Raviglione said about 60 percent of the $1.6 billion would be for WHO’s Africa region.


Man behind the curtain
has a movie of his own


The story of the Wizard of Oz, the magician who inhabits the Emerald City has weathered time. Written by Frank Baum in 1900, the fantasy has become a movie and a play many times over. Its most famous incarnation was MGM’s lavish 1939 production starring Judy Garland and her ruby slippers.  Now, a prequel to the original has been made to court audiences in the 21st century.
 
Like the original, "Oz the Great and Powerful," a new release by filmmaker Sam Raimi, opens in black and white.
 
Circus magician Oscar Diggs, played by James Franco, is taken to the Emerald City where he’s destined to claim the throne. First, he’s told, he has to kill the Wicked Witch. He meets three witches. They deny they're wicked.
 
It will take time for him to figure out who the bad witch is.
 
James Franco says the original story inspired him. “I have been a fan of the world of Oz since I was probably 11, maybe younger. So, I thought it was a really great opportunity to jump into the role of my childhood and imagination," he said.
 
Sam Raimi’s 3D film offers a good story, rich visuals, good acting and great special effects.
 
But it can't match the 1939 "Wizard of Oz" where Dorothy, played by Judy Garland in her ruby slippers, made history.
 
She travels to the Emerald City to meet the Wizard who will show her the way back home only to find that Oz is a fake.
 
The journey is an allegory of self-discovery.
 
The Library of Congress named The Wizard of Oz the most watched motion picture in history, says Patrick Loughney, executive director of the National Audio Visual Conservation Center at the Library. 
 
“It’s a magical film because it captures that concentration of energy, genius and creativity that was apparent in Hollywood, in the movie industry at that time," he said.
 
Loughney says the 1939 film carried a post-depression message of endurance. “To me it's the message of hope in the movie that ultimately connects with everybody at that time, and even today," he said.
 
Other incarnations of "The Wizard of Oz" have reflected changes in popular culture.  In 1974, "The Wiz" featured Dorothy played by Diana Ross, with an all-black cast.
 
"I think it reflects a social change that already occurred in America since the 1950s and 1960s. And so you have major movie studios beginning to accommodate artists coming out of the African American community," said Loughney.
 
Now, Sam Raimi’s technical marvel, "Oz the Great and Powerful," may give new life to the wizard until the next incarnation of Frank Baum's beloved story.

By the A.M. Costa Rica staff

Special to A.M. Costa Rica